Mineral resources minister Gwede Mantashe says predictions of coal’s demise have proved premature, telling investors and industry veterans that the fuel remains central to South Africa’s economic growth.
Mantashe was speaking at the McCloskey Southern African Coal Conference in Cape Town, held a week before the Mining Indaba.
Mantashe, a former coal miner, said the mineral underpins extensive industrial activity and sustains about 90,000 mineworkers and their families in South Africa.
“At the same time, the sector faces growing pressure from environmental groupings and global decarbonisation trends, with some predicting the imminent demise of coal. Reality, however, tells a different story,” he said in prepared remarks.
“The International Energy Agency’s [IEA] 2025 Global Energy Review indicates that global coal demand grew by 1.2% in 2024 — demonstrating, quite clearly, that King Coal is back. Our own studies confirm that coal will remain integral to South Africa’s economy as the primary source of our energy generation for many years to come.”
The Integrated Resource Plan 2025 targets the decommissioning of 8GW of coal-fired capacity by 2030 and prioritises renewables, which may discourage new coal mine investment.
However, the IEA in its latest report estimates that South Africa’s thermal coal operations require annual capital expenditure of about $1.8bn to sustain operating mines and expand where required to meet additional demand.
The agency forecasts South African coal production at 228-Mt in 2030, trending flat as logistics reforms partly offset the structural decline in investment.
“We are encouraged by ongoing investments in the sector, as demonstrated by recent developments such as Ikoti Coal underground operations, Seriti’s Naudesbank Colliery, and Arnot OpCo’s opencast operations,” Mantashe said.
Mantashe said the next growth vector for the coal industry lies in beneficiating the more than 25-Mt of coal fly ash the country produces annually, stating that only 10% of this was beneficiated.
“Scientific evidence confirms that coal discards and fly ash contain strategically important materials, including rare earth elements, vanadium, alumina, silica, gallium and other critical minerals essential for batteries, electronics, construction materials and advanced manufacturing,” he said.
“These materials are typically hosted within complex alumina, silica and iron-rich matrices, which require advanced characterisation, processing and integrated extraction approaches to treat. Global demand for these minerals is accelerating rapidly.
“Our coal endowment, therefore, presents South Africa with a unique opportunity to meet this demand using secondary resources that are already mined, processed and stockpiled within our borders.”
